Does European Primary Aluminum Sector is Exposed to Carbon Leakage? New Insights from Rolling Analysis

Mohamed Amine Boutabba (University of Evry-Val-d’Essonne)



This paper is an original contribution to investigate the risk of carbon leakage from primary aluminum sector under the EU ETS. We attempt to fill the gaps present in previous research through the technique of rolling cointegration that accounts for both structural breaks and time-varying connections. Our findings show that the European primary aluminum sector is affected by a negligible carbon leakage. However, results indicate that this carbon leakage is relatively more intense in the final period of the analysis. The authors are grateful to the two anonymous referees of this Journal for their constructive comments.The usual caveats apply.