Not all banking crises are alike: Assessing their distributional impacts relative to pre-crisis credit gaps
The empirical literature on the effects of banking crises on income inequality has yielded mixed
findings. In this paper, we aim to reconcile these mixed results by evaluating the effects of
banking crises on income inequality in relation to pre-crisis credit gaps. We apply the Local
Projections methodology to a yearly panel of 68 banking crises that occurred in 59 countries over
the period 1970–2017. Three key results emerge. First, banking crises lead to increased income
inequality. Second, only those banking crises preceded by larger credit gaps show a significant
increase in income inequality. Third, a deeper contraction in the credit supply and a higher
unemployment rate are two channels that could potentially explain why inequality rises more
after banking crises with larger pre-crisis credit gaps. These results underscore the importance of
macroprudential policies that, as well as limiting the amplitude of the financial cycle and the
associated risks of financial crises, could also play a key role in reducing the distributional
consequences of banking crises.