Abstract: Currently, land use change (LUC) accounts for approximately 18.8% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, and up to 66% and 70% in Brazil and Paraguay respectively. However, owing to measurement difficulties, examining the effects of changing trade patterns is often overlooked in studies. This study aims to investigate the induced effects of LUC and deforestation as a consequences the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement. A multi-regional recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with an explicit land module is used to simulate the effects of the free trade agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the main biomes for the MERCOSUR countries, Amazon, Chaco, Pampa and Atlantic Forest. LUC is modelled endogenously by land-using sector as the elasticity of substitution among land AEZ types according to their relative prices. A main innovation of this study is the use of land degradation and crop yield parameters to model climate responses endogenously, and their differential effects on the in LUC and deforestation. We use three SSP  and their respective representative concentration pathways to adjust atmospheric carbon concentrations and their impact on AEZ productivity.  Finally, we provide an accounting of  deforestation area, and GHG emissions calculated for LUC, fossil energy CO2, and non-CO2. 

Location: Salle Mainvaud (312), bâtiment IDF, University Évry Paris-Saclay