Hoping for the best while preparing for the worst in the face of uncertainty: a new type of incomplete preferences
We propose and axiomatize a new model of incomplete preferences under uncer-
tainty, which we call hope-and-prepare preferences. Act f is considered more desirable
than act g when, and only when, both an optimistic evaluation, computed as the wel-
fare level attained in a best-case scenario, and a pessimistic one, computed as the
welfare level attained in a worst-case scenario, rank f above g. Our comparison cri-
terion involves multiple priors, as best and worst cases are determined among sets of
probability distributions, and is, generically, less conservative than Bewley preferences
and twofold multi-prior preferences, the two ambiguity models that are closest to ours.1
Keywords: Decision theory; Incomplete preference; Multiple-selves; Non-obvious ma-
nipulability.
JEL classification: D01; D81; D90