This paper investigates the long-run dynamics of national sustainability using a panel of over 130 countries from 1996 to 2021. We use Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) as a forward-looking indicator of intertemporal wealth and examine both its levels and regime transitions through a combination of linear and non-linear panel regressions, dynamic specifications, and a Markov-type multinomial logit model. Rather than treating ANS solely as a continuous measure, we explore the critical threshold where it becomes negative, highlighting transitions into and out of unsustainable states. Our findings show that while macroeconomic fundamentals, such as investment and income, influence the level of ANS, regime transitions are particularly shaped by institutional quality, biodiversity, and resource pressure. Institutions reduce the probability of entering and remaining in a negative ANS regime, whereas high resource dependence increases it. Biodiversity consistently improves both ANS levels and sustainability stability. We identify persistent sustainability trajectories associated with initially high ANS levels, robust investment and income performance, strong institutional quality, and favorable ecological conditions. Despite its foundation in weak sustainability, we show that ANS can be extended to account for stronger, more inclusive notions of sustainability

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